Coronavirus cases in India have been increasing in India since February with over 50,000 new infection cases being reported in the past 24 hours. The spike clearly indicates a second wave reports the State Bank of India (SBI) said. The second wave may last up to 100 days, when counted from February 15, it said. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, the bank's chief economic adviser who has authored the research said that it is better placed this time to control the pandemic by increasing vaccination pace.
Increasing vaccination speed is the only way to win this battle against the disease, the report said.
Looking at the trends till March 23, the total number of coronavirus cases in India in the second wave is expected to be around 25 lakh. The 28-page long report calms that localised and limited lockdowns and restrictions have not been effective in controlling the spread of the virus. "Lockdown ineffective, mass vaccination is the only hope. This is visible in the case of many states including Maharashtra and Punjab," it said.
"India is witnessing a second wave of infection beginning February 2021, with daily new cases rising again. Pan-India total cases in the second wave are expected in the order of 25 lakhs (based on trends in data till 23-Mar). Considering the number of days from the current level of daily new cases to the peak level during the first wave, India might reach the peak in the second half of April," the report said.
"Though Global COVID-19 experience shows second waves much higher in intensity than the first wave, the presence of vaccines makes the difference currently. Thus India will be able to manage the situation better," the report added.
Focusing on the economic signs, the SBI report said the business activity index, based on high-frequency indicators, has sunk in the last week, adding that the impact of the lockdown or restrictions imposed by certain states might become visible next month.
Increasing the pace of vaccination across states from 34 lakh to 40-45 lakh per day, which means that immunisation of citizens over 45 years can be completed in four months from now, the report suggested.
Citing a study from the Great Pandemic flu of 1918-19, the report said: "There has also been a study in the past of the Great Pandemic flu of 1918-19 by Hatchett, Mecher and Lipsitch (2007) whose findings support the hypothesis that rapid implementation of multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including the closure of schools, churches, and theatres can significantly reduce influenza transmission, but that viral spread will only be renewed upon relaxation of such measures.”
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"Injection to infection ratio shows Israel, UK and Chile are doing better than India. However, the pace of vaccination/hundred population in India is much higher," it added.
On Wednesday, the health ministry said that a new "double mutant variant" of the Covid-19 has been detected in 18 states in the country in addition to many other strains or variants of concern (VOCs) that have also been found abroad. "As we are seeing the early second wave and completing more than one year of our fight against the virus, the focus should be on testing, wearing masks and vaccination," ICMR Director General Balram Bhargava said on Wednesday.