There has been a lot of discussion about the mysterious disease which has been the center for pandemic prevention preparedness. Termed as ‘Disease X’, it represents a hypothetical pathogen yet to be identified, but one that has the potential to cause a pandemic, possibly emerging from ‘zoonotic transmission’, where pathogens jump from animals to humans (such as Bird flu). But does ‘Disease X’ pose an imminent threat? How severe is the threat that this "Disease X" is likely to pose? Read on as we answer these questions.
In a John Hopkins School of Health's report, Amesh Adalja, MD, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, explains that Disease X is a placeholder concept that refers to a pandemic pathogen that has not yet been characterized. Its purpose is to encourage proactive thinking about pathogens that could cause a pandemic. Planning for the emergence of an as-yet unknown infectious pathogen could mean a swifter and a more effective public health response. Also, this planning could result in a situation that readily yields the vaccines, treatments, and diagnostic tests needed to save lives.
But what is Disease X?
Disease could be any pathogen that has the potential to cause a pandemic. However, experts say that it likely to come from viral families with certain properties that allow it to spread and infect in such a way as to cause a pandemic. These characteristics are likely to be aerial transmission, meaning that it could be transmitted through people talking, coughing, sneezing-much like Covid.
This concept allows the medicine experts to preemptively work with those viral strains, learning how they are transmitted, their impact on humans and how does the human immune system responds. Hence this preparedness gives the medical experts a jump-start as they aren’t waiting for something to classified as an ‘pandemic pathogen’ for them to start working on measures against it.
How Dangerous is Disease X?
The potential power of Disease X is largely speculative, as it represents a hypothetical pathogen yet to be identified. However, given its characterization as a potential pandemic threat by the World Health Organization (WHO), Disease X could possess significant global impact. It could potentially spread rapidly across populations, causing widespread illness, mortality, and disruptions to healthcare systems, economies, and social structures.
The severity of Disease X would depend on various factors including its transmission dynamics, virulence, available interventions, and the effectiveness of public health responses. Preparedness efforts are crucial to mitigate its potential impact and protect global health security.
What is important to note is that Disease X is not a new concept but has instead been around since as early as 2018. Also, this concept has proved its merit with several achievements already under its belt. As per the John Hopkins report,BioNTech and Moderna had a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate ready within hours to days because of work that was done in response to the MERS epidemic in the Arabian Peninsula, like understanding how to stabilize the spike protein in order to engender the appropriate type of antibodies. “Even though we didn't know SARS-CoV-2 would be a pandemic pathogen, people started to think that the coronavirus family was an important viral family to work in because of its ability to cause severe respiratory disease” said Dr. Amesh Adalja.