How Donald Trump's win in US Polls can impact India? 'H-1B Visas, tariff on Indian exports, Bangladeshi Hindus & more'

Democrats' Kamala Harris secured 224 electoral colleges, while Republicans' Donald Trump has won 270 - the majority mark

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Donald Trump on Wednesday declared victory in the US Presidential election, staging a comeback against all odds. During the President's address, Trump said, "This will truly be the golden age of America. That's why this is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow us to make America great again." Democrats' Kamala Harris secured 224 electoral colleges, while Republicans' Trump has won 270 - the majority mark. With this, Donald Trump will be the second Republican to get a second term in office in 20 years. George Bush, a Republican, was president from 2001 to 2009.

Notably, after Trump's victory in the US Elections 2024, PM Modi wished him on X and called him his dear friend. Furthermore, a wide section of Indians expressed their jubilation on Trump victory outlining that he will stand up with India over multiple key issues including violence against Hindus, Khalistan uprising in Canada, etc. Now, the question arises What Donald Trump's victory in US Presidential Elections 2024 mean for India and how will it impact India-US bilateral relationship? Below is everything you need to know- 

India-US Exports if Trump wins

According to Economic Times,India's top export destination for goods is the United States. In 2023–24, India's exports totaled $77.52 billion, while its imports from the US totaled $42.2 billion. Even when it came to international securities and threats, both Trump and Modi saw China as a threat and worked on enhancing the forces, having diplomatic relations, expanding economic cooperation for the security of the nations.
During the past tenure of Trump, the world has witnessed high-profile events like “Houston Modi” in 2019 and “Namaste Trump” in 2020 and it is of sure consent that his winning again would bring in more such events developing our relations.

But, there’s another side to this agenda which also might take routes as Trump has not been happy with India when it came to tariffs and has always claimed them to be “excessively higher" than they should be.

'Trump is not happy with India on multiple factors'

India levied retaliatory taxes on a number of American goods in 2019. Washington's unwillingness to exempt Delhi from higher import levies on steel and aluminum prompted this action. Amid a tariff conflict, Trump also withdrew India's preferential trade protection during his final term as US president. At the time, Trump had also threatened to impose penalties on India if it went ahead with plans to buy Russian S-400 anti-aircraft systems or buy oil from Iran.  

A Trump administration will probably implement trade policies that are centered on the US, pressuring India to lower trade obstacles or risk penalties. Important Indian industries with significant exports to the US market, such as IT, pharmaceuticals, and textiles, may be impacted.

Trump's strategy of promoting balanced trade may force India to reevaluate its trade policies.

 At BBC, Dr. Amit Singh, Associate Professor at the Special Centre for National Security Studies has stated that if Donald Trump wins, he would strive to strengthen the current trade relations with India because he has said at several election rallies that Narendra Modi is a good buddy. However, he adds that Trump has always supported America and the American First philosophy and that if he adopts this as a policy, it might have a negative effect on trade between the US and India.

So, currently, there’s a long wait going on in everyone’s minds who are looking for the results of the elections to unfold and then see if the USA-INDIA ties become stronger or they have a negative impact?

H1B Visas

On immigration, Donald Trump has favoured restrictive policies, particularly regarding the H-1B visa programme. If Trump comes to power it can have substantial impacts on Indian professionals in the US. A return to such policies could complicate Indian workers’ access to American job markets, affecting sectors dependent on skilled Indian workers, particularly in technology. 

However, Trump in a podcast  has proposed the idea of 'automatic Green Cards' for foreign students graduating from US colleges. In the podcast, Trump expressed support for granting Green Cards as part of diplomas, emphasizing the retention of talent in the United States. He underscored the economic potential lost when highly educated individuals return to their home countries, such as India and China, to start businesses that could otherwise thrive in the US.

'Plight of Hindus in Bangladesh'

Donald Trump on October 31 took to his X handle and wrote, "I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians, and other minorities who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh, which remains in a total state of chaos.

It would have never happened on my watch. Kamala and Joe have ignored Hindus across the world and in America. They have been a disaster from Israel to Ukraine to our own Southern Border, but we will Make America Strong Again and bring back Peace through Strength!

We will also protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left. We will fight for your freedom. Under my administration, we will also strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi.

Kamala Harris will destroy your small businesses with more regulations and higher taxes. By contrast, I cut taxes, cut regulations, unleashed American energy, and built the greatest economy in history. We will do it again, bigger and better than ever before—and we will Make America Great Again. Also, Happy Diwali to All. I hope the Festival of Lights leads to the Victory of Good over Evil!"


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