US intelligence agencies report on climate change has stated that Afghanistan, India and Pakistan were among 11 countries that are "highly vulnerable" with regards to their ability to prepare for and respond to environmental and societal disasters led by climate change.
The National Intelligence Estimate, the Office of Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) in the report has predicted that global warming will increase geopolitical tensions. It has also signalled towards risk to US national security in the period up to 2040.
The report identifies particular "countries of concern" Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Myanmar, Iraq, North Korea, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua and Colombia.
Afghanistan’s current situation is especially worrying because of heat, drought, water availability and its ineffective government. The main geopolitical flashpoint in India and the rest of South Asia is the water dispute.
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Climate change is "likely to increase the risk of instability in countries in Central Africa and small island states in the Pacific, which clustered together form two of the most vulnerable areas in the world." The report identifies two additional regions of concern to U.S. intelligence agencies.
Countries dependent on fossil fuel exports "will continue to resist a quick transition to a zero-carbon world because they fear the economic, political, and geopolitical costs of doing so," the report said, noting the global disparity in tackling climate change.
The report notes that the Arctic and non-Arctics states "almost certainly will increase their competitive activities as the region becomes more accessible because of warming temperatures and reduced ice."
The report also mentions that international competition in the Arctic "will be largely economic but the risk of miscalculation will increase modestly by 2040 as commercial and military activity grows and opportunities are more contested."
Further, the report released by the National Intelligence Council ahead of the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow had said that China and India will play crucial roles in defining the trajectory of rising temperatures.
Both the Asian countries are increasing their total and per capita emissions, whereas the United States and the European Union (EU), which are the second and third-largest emitters, are working on diminishing their emissions.
“Both China and India are incorporating more renewable and low-carbon energy sources, but several factors will limit their displacement of coal," the report said.
“They need to modernise their grids, have sunk costs that make it relatively cheaper to use coal compared with other energy sources, want to minimise reliance on fuel imports for national security reasons and are trying to appease domestic constituencies who rely on the coal industry for jobs,” added the report.
Adding that India will certainly increase its emissions as it develops economically, the report also stated that “Indian officials have not committed to a net-zero target date and have instead called on countries with larger economies to reduce emissions.”