With the upcoming Jalandhar by-poll elections, all the political parties, including Congress, AAP, BJP, and Shiromani Akali Dal, have pulled up their socks, and each party has been making an all-out effort to win the elections. In a bid to secure victory, the BJP has called upon senior leaders from other states, including former Chief Minister of Gujarat, Vijay Rupani, as well as MP and MLA leaders from Haryana, who have been campaigning in Jalandhar for over 10 days.
Despite these efforts, the BJP has struggled to sway voters in Jalandhar and build a base to earn votes. One of the reasons for this is the party's choice of candidate for the election: Inder Iqbal Singh Atwal, a former member of Shiromani Akali Dal, a competing party, who only joined the BJP a month ago. Many senior leaders from the BJP in Jalandhar were reportedly overlooked by the party high command, as there were other 6 to 7 leaders who wanted to contest the election and have been campaigning for the BJP, but the high command's favour went to an outsider from another party.
As per political experts, BJP only has influence in 3 to 4 of the 9 constituencies in Jalandhar, with the AAP posing a significant threat to the BJP's influence in West Jalandhar. Mohinder Bhagat, a BJP leader from West Jalandhar, recently left the party to join AAP. He is the son of Chunni Lal Bhagat, a long-standing BJP member who has held positions as MLA and MP and over the years has made a fair share of voters in his name, but since his son, Mohinder, has joined AAP, it is unsure whether the voters will still vote for the BJP or not. This has greatly impacted the BJP's influence in West Jalandhar, as the Bhagat community, which has significant influence in the region, is now supporting AAP.
In Central Jalandhar, the BJP has won many times in the past, but internal clashes within the party have led to concerns that other BJP members might lose their seats and vote for other contesting parties. The party also lacks influence over the middle class in the region.
North Jalandhar appears to be split between the Congress and AAP, with the BJP struggling to make an impact. Jalandhar Cantt has no influence from the BJP, with the party in fourth position after Congress, AAP, and Shiromani Akali Dal. The BJP also has zero influence in other constituencies such as Phillaur, Shahkot, Nakodar, and Adampur, which are mostly rural areas.
Truescoop interacted with people and political experts, and according to them in Jalandhar, they believe that the BJP is not even in contention to win any seat or vote, with the real competition between Congress and AAP. The BJP's grasp over the Hindu vote bank may not be enough, as the party is fighting with an outsider who belongs to different cadre and previously fought elections from Rajkot, Ludhiana, voters may prioritise the credibility of the person standing for their constituency rather than the party.
The upcoming Jalandhar by-poll elections on May 10, 2023, will be critical for the BJP's future prospects in Punjab, with the results set to be announced on May 13, 2023. If the BJP fails to secure a position among the top three parties in Jalandhar, it is uncertain if they will even win any seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Punjab. Former Chief Minister of Punjab, Amarinder Singh, has joined hands with the BJP for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections; he also said that the upcoming Jalandhar Lok Sabha by-election on May 10 will be a test of the Modi government's performance nationally, but it remains to be seen whether this move will pay off.