When the BJP won 2014 Jharkhand Assembly election, not too many people expected Raghubar Das to be the Jharkhand chief minister. Reason: He was an outsider, originally belonging to Chhattisgarh, and he was an OBC leader. Jharkhand had always had a tribal leader as the chief minister till that point. But Raghubar Das got the nomination from the BJP for being a founder member of the party and having a good "equation" with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah, now also the Union home minister.
Will Raghubar Das return as the chief minister of Jharkhand after the five-phase assembly election between November 30 and December 20?
The answer largely lies in the manner in which women and tribal voters of Jharkhand exercise their franchise. That women voters could be a deciding factor in an election was not very well understood by the political parties till JDU leader Nitish Kumar showed it in neighbouring Bihar in 2015 assembly election.
WOMEN MATTER AS VOTERS
With an almost total ban on liquor sale - after being told to do so by a group of women on one of his tours - and reserving 50 per cent of the seats in the gram panchayat for women, Nitish Kumar carved out a separate electoral constituency. Facing Modi-powered BJP - on the back of spectacular performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha election - Nitish Kumar engineered a rout of the BJP-led NDA in the 2015 state election. Women voters played a key role.
Since then all political parties have tried to present themselves as champions of women's cause. PM Modi eloquently highlights Ujjwala Yojana of LPG connection, toilet construction under Swachh Bharat campaign and Beti Bachao-Beti Padhao drive. Top Congress leaders including Rahul Gandhi have been speaking about implementing 33 per cent quota for women in state legislatures and Parliament.
A DECIDING FACTOR IN JHARKHAND
In Jharkhand, such campaigns are more significant in view of an emerging definite pattern of voting by women. Of total 2.26 crore voters in Jharkhand, 1.08 crore are women. An interesting thing here is the improvement in the ratio of woman to man voters in Jharkhand.
During voters' awareness campaign undertaken after the 2019 Lok Sabha election, more women enrolled as compared to men - 1.06 lakh to 86,000 - showing enthusiasm among women for election.
Voting percentage of women was higher than men in about one-fourth (20) of 81 assembly segments during the Lok Sabha election in Jharkhand. In 28 assembly seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes, women outnumbered men in 13 segments during the Lok Sabha election. This combination makes women a potential decider of the Jharkhand Assembly election.
In 10 assembly constituencies, women actually constitute more than 50 per cent of the total voters -- Majhgaon in West Singhbhum district, Littipara in Pakur, Chaibasa, Khunti (where Pathalgadi movement got national attention), Shikaripara, Simdega, Maheshpur, Kharswan, Manoharpur and Ghatsila. In all these assembly segments, women's voting percentage was higher than the man voters.
SPLIT OR NOT: DILEMMA OF TRIBAL VOTERS
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Then there are tribal voters, who have always been significant. Though all tribal communities don't vote as one unit, but political parties have largely treated them as one. They constitute more than one-third of total voters in Jharkhand - 86 lakh of 2.26 crore - and along with Scheduled Caste voters (39 lakh), they are a formidable force in Jharkhand election.
Jharkhand has nine assembly seats reserved for the Scheduled Caste candidates taking the total reserved seats (for both the SCs and STs) to 37 - just four shy of the half-way mark in the Jharkhand Assembly. However, just like the general category votes (about 1 crore), ST and SC votes get divided.
LARGE NUMBER OF PARTIES
With the BJP failing to arrive at a pre-poll alliance with its former partners, the Jharkhand Assembly election has become more open-ended that many political observers estimated earlier.
The UPA, however, sorted out inter-party differences for a Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal alliance but the NDA constituents are contesting separately. Hemant Soren of the JMM is the chief ministerial candidate for the UPA.
In the ruling alliance, the BJP and the All Jharkhand Students Union of Sudesh Mahto is contesting alone. The Lok Jan Shakti Party of Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan - now officially led by his son Chirag Paswan - too went solo after its call for an alliance was ignored by the BJP.
The Janata Dal (United) is too contesting alone and interestingly extending support to Saryu Raio -- a BJP rebel - contesting against Raghubar Das from Jamshedpur East. Raghubar Das has been winning this constituency since 1995 (then it was part of undivided Bihar Assembly).
Former Jharkhand Chief Minister Babulal Marandi's Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) is contesting on all 81 seats in this election. The JVM had got 10 per cent votes in 2014. However, six of its eight MLAs later defected to the BJP giving it a single-party majority. The BJP had won 37 seats while its ally AJSU five.
OWAISI FACTOR IN JHARKHAND
Then there is All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimee (AIMIM) of Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi in contest at 20 seats in Jharkhand. The AIMIM has been focusing on constituencies with sizeable Muslim population. Muslims constitute about 15 per cent population of Jharkhand.
And, in these 20 seats, where AIMIM is contesting, the Muslim votes are likely to be split between Owaisi's party the UPA. Incidents of lynching of Muslims are not seen in Jharkhand as a law and order issue only. It is an emotive issue for the Muslim community.
The presence of so many parties in the Jharkhand Assembly election makes it a multi-cornered contest, which at the end may be decided by the manner in which women and tribals vote. Their view of Raghubar Das is likely to be a key factor in the Jharkhand election.
AND FINALLY, FOCUS ON RAGHUBAR DAS
Raghubar Das, meanwhile, has dented his own image in the five years - thus becoming the first chief minister of Jharkhand to complete full term in office. He is perceived as a "rude" leader who could be seen "bad mouthing people in public".
Recently, in a slip of tongue, Raghubar Das at a public rally in Bokaro said, "Jharkhand pehla rajya bane jo Adivasi-mukta ho (Jharkhand should become the first tribal-free state)". This happened at an event organised to mark the birthday of PM Modi on September 17 this year. Raghubar Das intended to say that Jharkhand should be made plastic-free. The video of his slip of tongue remark was widely shared in Jharkhand.
This image of Raghubar Das is not very much liked by women and tribal voters in Jharkhand but the BJP hopes that PM Modi's charisma may prevail when assembly election results are declared on December 23.