With the Lok-Sabha elections just a few weeks away, the political landscape of the country is in uproar. Whereas BJP emerged the victor in 2019 elections in a landslide victory, the party’s chances in this contest seem to be more contentious. The AAP-Congress alliance and internal conflicts within the BJP may be responsible for the Hindutva endorsers to lose ground in prominent states like Himachal, Haryana and Delhi, where previously their influence was uncontested. Here is a True Scoop exclusive analysis into the political landscape of the 2024 general elections:
- Punjab:
Talking about Punjab, it was one of the states where the Bharatiya Janata Party could not perform as well as it did in other constituencies. The party contested the 2019 elections in coalition with the Shiromani Akali Dal, and was successful in winning only 4 (2 by BJP, 2 by SAD) seats of a total 13 Lok Sabha Seats from Punjab. Congress reigned supreme clinching 8 seats in Punjab constituency with AAP scoring 1 seat in Sangrur, won by current CM Bhagwant Mann.
The SAD-BJP alliance was subsequently dissolved. As of now, political experts say that BJP is slated for a steep downfall in several regions in which the party was previously favoured. BJP brings in the more urban-based voting demographic whereas Akali Dal brings in the rural-based voters. According to experts, BJP doesn’t have much ground in Punjab with it’s urban demographic if it does not join hands with the Akali Dal. BJP could likely lose the seats it won in Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur in 2019.
- Delhi:
It was a clean sweep victory for the BJP in Delhi, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh. It decimated the opposition of Congress and AAP in Delhi in 2019. But now that AAP and Congress are likely to join hands, BJP are likely to face a tough challenge. The opposition from INDIA alliance consisting of several prominent AAP and Congress leaders is also likely to be a big thorn in BJP’s side. Hence according to political experts, the clean sweep victory is likely to be a 50-50 scenario in this year’s elections at best.
- Haryana:
BJP also suffered a landslide clean sweep in Haryana, with a majority of the state government consisting of the party’s members. However, the recent slew of state issues and central issues could deliver a damaging blow to BJP’s popularity. According to sources, BJP is suffering from internal conflicts in the state of Haryana resulting in division amongst the party. Their troubles are further exacerbated after their separation from JJP (Jannayak Janata Party). BJP could face tough opposition from Congress, further decreasing the likelihood of another clean sweep victory.
- Himachal Pradesh:
BJP also swept the house in Himachal Pradesh scoring all 4 seats in the constituency. However after the death of BJP MP Ram Swaroop Sharma in Mandi, the party lost the by-elections to Congress leader Pratibha Singh. BJP is also divided into separate groups in Himachal Pradesh. Congress presents a more united front than the BJP even though there are internal conflicts among the Congress party as well. Whereas the state was BJP-ruled after the 2019 elections, congress took charge after the victory in the by-elections. Hence whether BJP is able to take back the seats in the state remains to be seen.
- Jammu & Kashmir:
In Jammu and Kashmir, the 2019 elections were contested between BJP, Congress, J&K National Conference Alliance (JKNC) and PDP (Jammu and Kashmir People's Democratic Party). BJP and PDP were contesting separately whereas JKNC and Congress were in alliance. This year, BJP’s three opposing parties, all have members in the INDIA alliance. According to experts, BJP and Congress share a demographic of voters from the non-valley regions, whereas JKNC and PDP appeal to the valleys and the minority groups of the state. Hence BJP’s opposition could be further strengthened due to the INDIA alliance.
This story was done on the basis of information gathered from various political experts and from information reported from the ground situation in politics.