The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted "above normal" rainfall for the monsoon season of 2025. The news arrives as a significant relief as India tackles Inflation (citing good harvest and adequate storage in India’s reservoirs and aquifers). Experts predict a 105 percent LAP (Long Average Period) on April 15.
Generally, 96-104 percent rainfall (87 centimeters) is considered normal, and India is all set for showers just above this mark. A few days ago, a private weather forecasting agency named Skymet gave similar stats: precisely 103 percent of LPA (Long Average Period).
Approximately 75% of India’s rainfall occurs from June to September. However, the drizzles are slow to start in June and pick pace between July and September 2025, India's peak of the monsoon period.
Why are the IMD numbers crucial for India’s economy?
Monsoon projections are closely monitored not only for weather-related reasons but also for economic forecasts in the country. Rain plays a vital role in crop production and Inflation, making it an intriguing resort for financial analysts to predict the nation’s wealth and welfare for the year.
India is the world's biggest exporter of rice and onions and the second-biggest sugar producer. Good rainfall in the country lowers food prices, keeping Inflation in check and boosting exports.
Additionally, favorable rainfall will reduce the need for edible oil imports. Apparently, two-thirds of India’s edible oil needs are met by imports (palm oil, sunflower oil, and soy oil) from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine.
Month-wise rain forecast
Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Jammu, and Kashmir are projected to receive below-average rainfall compared to other states. In contrast, central India is expected to receive normal to above-average rainfall.
Kerala, Karnataka, and Goa will likely experience good rainfall in June. The northern part of India is anticipated to experience the monsoon by the end of June.
The western regions of India will encounter heavy rain in July, while the central and eastern states are expected to see above-normal rains by August. Both western and central India will likely receive more rain in September. Lastly, Tamil Nadu, certain coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh, Konkan, and South Gujarat are forecasted to receive below-normal rainfall.