The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-Congress alliance seems to be on its way to forming the government as the grand alliance has already established leads on 46 of 81 seats in the 2019 Jharkhand elections.
We have seen that if Narendra Modi is not a direct factor in an election, the BJP has struggled. It was evident in Punjab in 2017, in three Hindi-heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and also in Haryana and Maharashtra recently. In Uttar Pradesh election in 2017, Narendra Modi was a factor. He is an MP from Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh and the BJP was not seeking a return to power in the state. It was seeking a fresh mandate for itself.
In Jharkhand, like in Haryana, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the BJP was seeking a returning mandate. Narendra Modi was not a direct factor. Only six months ago, Jharkhand had given a favourable mandate to Narendra Modi in the Lok Sabha election. But in the Jharkhand Assembly election, people definitely judged the BJP as a party and Raghubar Das as the head of a BJP government. Both failed in the popular mandate in Jharkhand.
Question is why Jharkhand rejected the BJP and Raghubar Das despite PM Modi making a frantic effort with comments like, "those (opposing the government and resorting to violence over Citizenship Amendment Act) could be identified with their clothes"? Polarisation did not work for the BJP in Jharkhand.
NOT FOR MODI
Voters have made the distinction between a Lok Sabha election and an assembly election. They know despite PM Modi's assertion of the double-engine growth model with him at the Centre and a BJP government in the state, it is a local leader who will have his/her say in governing them. They understand how India federalism works notwithstanding what experts say about Indian voters.
This "intelligent voter" made her power felt in Delhi 2015 polls and Bihar 2015 election soon after the Modi wave swept almost entire north-of-peninsula India. Jharkhand and Haryana Assembly election reinforces the intelligent voters of India if some expert feels that the Hindi-heartland elections were an exception.
ARROGANCE OF RAGHUBAR DAS
Raghubar Das had been in power earlier too as a minister in previous BJP government and had been winning his Jamshedpur East constituency consistently. But when he was hand-picked by Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo in 2014, he got a booster dose but people in Jharkhand complained "power got to his head".
Even the BJP leaders in Jharkhand agree that Raghubar Das's image of a "rude" politician hurt the party in the state. The videos showing Raghubar Das yelling at commoners and officials have gone viral on many occasions in the past five years. One of such videos, showed a gaffe where Raghubar Das was heard saying "Jharkhand will be the first adivasi-mukt state".
TRIBAL ANGER
Jharkhand was created as a tribal state in 2000 after a very long agitation by leaders like Shibu Soren, the father of chief ministerial aspirant Hemant Soren and the founder of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha.
Though tribal vote share is less than one-third, Jharkhand emotionally remains a tribal state, where the image of Raghubar Das government became of one government that is anti-tribal in nature.
In 2014, the BJP-led alliance had won 13 out of 28 assembly seats reserved for Scheduled Tribe candidates. Even in the Lok Sabha election, the BJP won three of the five seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes in Jharkhand. However, two of these victories came with very slim margins.
Also Read: Jharkhand Election Results: My defeat, not party's, says BJP's Raghubar Das
This time around, the JMM won more than 20 of these seats - a clear case of tribals moving from the BJP camp to the JMM side.
The amendment to the land acquisition law was seen as tribals as an assault on their rights by the BJP government. Creation of land banks confounded the tribal voters further.
Pathalgadi movement was another issue that hurt the BJP in Jharkhand. This was an expression that demanded that the rights of tribals must be recognised by the government of the day. The BJP was seen acting against the tribal sentiment.
The anti-conversion bill was another troubling aspect. The tribal Christians, who had voted for the BJP-AJSU alliance in 2014 saw the anti-conversion bill as a move to target them.
LYNCHING
Attacks on Muslims and Dalits by vigilante groups also played a role in changing the narrative against the BJP, whose government was seen not doing enough to ensure safety and security of the vulnerable groups. In past five years, such images have come in plenty from Jharkhand.
There have been more than 20 lynching deaths in Jharkhand in the last two years only. At least 11 of these victims were Muslims, most of whom were targeted by cow vigilante groups.
Five lynching victims were Hindus, who were killed over rumours of child lifting. And, two were tribal Christians, who were targeted for allegedly carrying and consuming beef.
The BJP government was not seen as taking adequate action to rein in the lynch mob, who often shouted slogans commonly identified with the Hindutva agenda. Former Union minister Jayant Sinha's garlanding of eight people convicted in a lynching case was a "proof" to many that the BJP cared little about lynch mobs.
Moreover, the Jharkhand Assembly election was held while the image of the lynching of Tabrez Ansari was still afresh. The video of the lynching had gone viral.
BJP NO LONGER "DIFFERENT"
There was a time when the BJP claimed it was the "party with a difference". This claim gave people impression that the BJP would adopt no-nonsensical approach towards corruption for political gains.
In Jharkhand, where the BJP's Raghubar Das became the first chief minister to complete his full term, the ruling party made too many compromises and ignored serious charges against its candidates just ahead of the election.
The BJP fielded Shashi Bhushan Mehta, who joined the party after quitting the JMM, from Panki. He is facing trial in a murder case. Shashi Bhushan Mehta is accused of killing a teacher working in his school.
Independent MLA Bhanu Pratap Shahi, who joined the BJP on the eve of Jharkhand Assembly election, faces corruption cases. He is an accused in Rs 130-crore medicine scam. The BJP fielded Bhanu Pratap Shahi from Bhavnathpur.
Another tainted leader Dhullu Mahato, the sitting BJP MLA from Baghmara got party nomination. He is facing several cases. The BJP's claim that it fights corruption lies exposed in Jharkhand.
IGNORING ALLIES
This was the first state election since the creation of Jharkhand in 2000 that the BJP contested the polls alone. It junked its oldest ally in the state, the All Jharkhand Students Union Party, whose Sudesh Mahto tried till the very last moment to have a pre-poll tie-up with the BJP.
The BJP leadership, then smarting under the Maharashtra experience of having been "ditched" by 35-year-old ally Shiv Sena, decided to go solo in Jharkhand. The party, however, did not put up its candidate against Sudesh Mahto at Silli seat in Ranchi.
The trend from the counting of votes in Jharkhand shows that the BJP would have been in advantageous position had it conceded to demands by the AJSUP in the assembly election. The BJP has improved its own vote share but it was in the fray against a combined Opposition grand-alliance of the JMM, the Congress and the RJD.
The counting of votes is still in progress but trends suggest that the BJP-AJSUP combined would have won 42-43 per cent votes compared to around 36 per cent votes by the JMM-Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal alliance.
A party or an alliance needs to secure at least 41 seats in Jharkhand to earn a majority in the 81-member house. No single party looks to win majority in Jharkhand with the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance hovering in the striking zone.
The grand-alliance should be forming the government in Jharkhand if Maharashtra syndrome does not afflict one of the constituents of the coalition over some issue.
The BJP had won 37 seats in 2014 while its ally AJSUP five. Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) of Babulal Marandi had won eight, six of whom joined the BJP post-election. The JMM had won 19, the Congress six while the RJD had failed to open its account.