A report claiming that Coronavirus death count could be "five-to-seven times" higher than the official number has been refuted by the Indian government. The report states that the assessment is based on the extrapolation of data without any epidemiological evidence.
The article claimed: "India has suffered perhaps five to seven times ''excess deaths'' than the official number of Covid-19 fatalities".
Trashing the publication, the Union Health Ministry said that the article by the Economist is speculative, without any basis and misinformed.
"The unsound analysis of the said article is based on the extrapolation of data without any epidemiological evidence," the ministry said.
The statement also added that the studies used by the magazine to evaluate mortality are not certified tools for determining the death rate of any country or region. Further, it also listed the reasons why the studies adopted cannot be trusted. The ministry said that an internet search of research studies in scientific databases such as Pubmed, Research Gate, etc., did not place this study and its detailed methodology has not been provided by the magazine either, the ministry said.
The statement stated that another proof the study provides is done in Telangana based on insurance claims, again has no peer-reviewed scientific data available on such a study.
"Two other studies relied upon are those done by Psephology groups namely ''Prashnam'' and ''C-Voter'' who are well versed in conducting, predicting and analyzing poll results. They were never associated with public health research. Even in their area of work of psephology, their methodologies for predicting poll results have been wide off the mark many times," the statement read.
The magazine itself submits that "such estimates have been extrapolated from patchy and often unreliable local government data, from company records and analyses of such things as obituaries", the statement said
The article also said that the government has been transparent in its approach to Covid data management.
To avoid differences in reported Covid death numbers, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) had issued guidelines as early as May 2020, the ministry said. For documenting the correct count of all deaths, India has followed the ICD-10 codes recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO).
Further divulging the details, the ministry said that the states and Union territories have been requested through formal communications, multiple video conferences and through the deployment of Central teams for recording correct deaths by the guidelines given. The ministry constantly stressed the need for a robust reporting tool for monitoring district-wise cases and deaths daily.
"States consistently reporting a lower number of daily deaths were told to re-check their data. A case in point is the Union Government writing to the State of Bihar to provide detailed data and district-wise break-up of the reconciled number of deaths to the Union Health Ministry," it said.
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The statement added that differences in mortality recorded during an extended and serious public health crisis like that of coronavirus pandemic is always a possibility. The well-conducted research studies on excess mortalities, usually done after the event when data on mortalities are available from reliable sources can also have differences. The studies methodologies are better organised, the data sources are defined as also the valid assumptions for computing mortality, the statement read.