Scoop analysis: How did AAP turn the tide after trailing in the Lok Sabha elections?

In a major turn of fortune for AAP, Bhagat’s win was one-sided as he was leading from the initial round of counting.

Lok Sabha Election 2024, Punjab, Trending, Mohinder Bhagat, Jalandhar West Bye-elections, Jalandhar News, Jalandhar West, Jalandhar Legislative Assembly, Jalandhar assembly bye-polls, Jalandhar bypolls, Scoop Analysis, Extra Lens- True Scoop

In a face-saving for the AAP government in Punjab led by Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, their candidate, Mohinder Bhagat on Saturday won the Jalandhar West Assembly byepoll by 37,325 votes, defeating nearest rival and BJP candidate Sheetal Angural, whose defection from AAP necessitated the byepoll.

Bhagat’s win was one-sided as he was leading from the initial round of counting. However AAP’s performance this year was quite a reversal from the dismal performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. In the Parliamentary elections, Congress polled 44,394 votes, BJP got 42,837 and AAP was distant third with 15,629 votes from the Jalandhar West constituency. However, the byepolls were a major reversal for the broom party as whil Bhagat led with 55,246 votes (58.39%) Angural polled 17,921 votes, while Congress candidate Surinder Kaur, the former senior Deputy Mayor of Jalandhar, finished third with 16,757 votes, as per the Election Commission of India.

Congress and BJP were the major losers, losing around 27,637 voters and 24,916 voters respectively. Neither the Channi factor nor the Modi factor could help out either of the parties. At the same time, AAP skyrocketed to the top spot covering the distance with 39,617 votes. The question arises where did AAP gain such an amount of voters. The answer is likely from the Ravidasia community along with the Bhagat community. Also CM Mann also managed to garner support from the Doaba region, which majorly favored Channi.

The Ravidasiya & Bhagat communities are the two largest SC communities settled in the Jalandhar West constituency. AAP already enjoyed a massive edge in Jalandhar West, putting Mohinder Bhagat up as their candidate.  Before AAP, it was the BJP that politically empowered the Bhagat community. As a result, by fielding Mohinder Bhagat, AAP was looking to dent BJP's vote back in Jalandhar West constituency. 

His father Chunni Lal reportedly was the first sports industry entrepreneur from the community after working as an employee at a sports goods manufacturing unit. Mohinder Bhagat's father was one of the first few members of the community to join Jan Sangh, the earlier avatar of BJP. Chunni Lal reportedly faced boycott calls for joining the Jan Sangh. However, what happened next was BJP's consolidation in the Bhagat community.  Chunni Lal remained in several organisational posts in the BJP. In 1997, he was pushed into an electoral battle as he got the party ticket to contest the assembly election from the Jalandhar South constituency and won. Later Chunni Lal became a prominent Dalit face for the BJP.

On the other hand, Congress has always fielded a candidate from the Ravidasiya community. In fact, its senior leaders like Darshan Kaypayee and his son Mohinder Kaypee have won from the same seat in the past. For the 2024 bye polls, Congress fielded a candidate belonging to the Ravidasiya community- Surinder Kaur, however, she could not gain the adequate support, placing third in the standings.  Even the support enjoyed by Channi from the Doaba region could not pay dividends, mainly due to senior Congress leaders abstaining from actively campaigning for Surinder Kaur.


Trending