True Scoop News Analysis: How accurate are exit polls? Visiting 2019, 2014 & 2009 Lok Sabha Poll predictions & actual results

INDIA block leaders rejected the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 Exit Polls calling it 'Sarkari' and said that they will still wait for June 4 results.

Authored by: | Updated 6/1/2024, 9:12:36 PM
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Voting for final phase of Lok Sabha Elections 2024 concluded on June 1 and in no time the attention of India shifted to Exit Polls. .Exit Polls are estimation of media channels based on their on ground report and survey that who or which party will be winning the elections. Interestingly, on Friday, Congress had announced that it will boycott the Indian media's exit polls and will sent its representatives at any channel. Not only this, while the phase 7 voting for the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 was going on and exit polls were yet to be declared, INDIA block leaders led by Mallikarjun Kharge announced that they are winning more than 295 seats. Delhi CM Kejriwal even announced that INDIA block will decide its PM face on June 4. However, most of the exit polls displayed by media channels showcased PM Modi coming back to power for the third time. 

As a result, INDIA block leaders rejected the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 Exit Polls saying that they will still wait for June 4 results. Congress spokesperson Shama Mohamed said, "Let them be happy today. On June 4, we will rejoice and INDIA alliance will form the government." 

AAP leader Sanjay Singh said, "Exit polls are of the government, these exit polls are of BJP. Exit polls always show BJP winning. In the meeting (INDIA bloc) leaders have said that 295 seats are coming to INDIA alliance and we will form a government."

BJP leader Hardeep Singh Puri in response said, "Kharge ji has given a figure (of 295 seats in Lok Sabha polls for INDIA alliance) today...'Mungerilal ke sunehre sapne'. Congress is hopeful of getting 300 seats when they are fighting 328 seats. Even if their strike rate is 80%, then also they won't get 300 seats."

Now, the question arises how accurate are exit polls? Below is previous two Lok Sabha Elections exit polls and their comparison with actual result

Checking Lok Sabha Elections exit polls accuracy

2019 Lok Sabha Elections

  1. During the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, India Today- Axis My India predicted- NDA- 339-365, UPA- 77-108
  2. News24-Today's Chanakya- NDA (350 +,- 14), UPA (95 +,- 9)
  3. News18-IPSOS- NDA (336), UPA (82)
  4. Times Now-VMR- NDA (306), UPA (132)
  5. India TV-CNX- NDA (300 +,- 10), UPA (120 +,- 5)

2019 Lok Sabha Elections Results

NDA: Won 352 seats. BJP alone secured 303 seats.

UPA: Won 91 seats. Congress won 52 seats.

2014 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls

  1. India Today-Cicero: NDA (272 seats), UPA (115)
  2. News 24-Chanakya: NDA (340 seats), UPA (101)
  3. CNN-IBN-CSDS: NDA (280 seats), UPA (97) 
  4. Times Now ORG: NDA (249 seats), UPA (148) 
  5. ABP News-Nielsen: NDA (274 seats), UPA (97) 
  6. NDTV-Hansa Research: NDA (279 seats), UPA (103)

2014 Lok Sabha Elections Results

NDA: 336 seats; BJP won 282 seats 

UPA: 60 seats; Congress won just 44 seats

2009 Lok Sabha Election Exit Polls

  1. CNN-IBN-Dainik Bhasker- NDA (165 to 185), UPA (185-205)
  2. Star-Nielsen- NDA (196), UPA (199)
  3. India TV-C Voter- NDA (183 to 195), UPA (189-201)

2009 Lok Sabha Election Results

NDA: 159 seats

UPA: 262 seats

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