The Indian economy survived the pandemic COVID-19’s beatings
with the unorganized sectors’ workforce being the worst affected. However, the
nation is being unlocked and the think tanks are now focusing on recovery and
growth.
The experts are debating if the country will see a V-shaped,
U-shaped, L-shaped, W-shaped, or K-shaped recovery.
Though the RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das disagrees about the
importance being placed on shape and claims that it is the speed of recovery
that will be more important. He gave the analogy of a cricket match to
establish the fate of winning team under a three speed process.
So, the first to drive Indian economy on the recovery path
would be openers in the form of labour intensive sectors that have shown
resilience in the face of pandemic. The next would be set sectors that are
'striking form' and gradually recovering and contributing to growth and lastly
the 'slog over' sectors that are most impacted by the pandemic but have the potential
to bring about big change and 'rescue an innings'.
Presenting the outcome of the monetary Policy Committee
meeting on Friday, Das said, in his view, India will get predominantly a three-
speed recovery, with individual sectors showing varying paces, depending on sector-specific
realities.
"Sectors that would 'open their accounts' the earliest
are expected to be those that have shown resilience in the face of the pandemic
and are also labour-intensive," Das said.
Agriculture and allied activities; fast moving consumer
goods; two wheelers, passenger vehicles and tractors; drugs and
pharmaceuticals; and electricity generation, especially renewables, are some of
the sectors in this category .
In several of these areas, reforms such as in agricultural
marketing and value chains encompassing cold storage, transport and processing;
changes in la bour laws; and creation of capacity for production and
distribution of vaccines have already opened up new vistas for fresh investment
to step in.
The second category of sectors, according to Das, to 'strike
form' would comprise sectors where activity is normalizing gradually. While the
third category of sectors would include the ones which face the 'slog overs',
but they can rescue the innings. These are sectors that are most severely
affected by social distancing and are contact-intensive.
According to the RBI, the economy is on recovery path and
growth could become visible from the fourth quarter period. Irrespective of the
shape of recovery, restoring the health of economy and sectors would be closely
watched.
For the year 2020-21 as a whole, therefore, real GDP is
expected to decline by 9.5 per cent, with risks tilted to the downside. If,
however, the current momentum of upturn gains ground, a faster and stronger
rebound is eminently feasible, the RBI said.
(With inputs of IANS)