The Union health ministry data shows that states are running out of Covid vaccine stock, on average has five days of vaccine storage and an extra week’s supply in the line. Currently, states like Andhra Pradesh and Bihar, have vaccine stock for less than two days, while other states like Odisha, have vaccine enough for only four days. This study is based on the health ministry data on the total number of doses that were supplied to the states as of Thursday at 12.30 pm. These are the number of shots already used up by them, doses in the pipeline, and the average level of daily vaccination by each state since April 1, when the Centre expanded the vaccination drive to include those over 45.
With the rate of April’s vaccination of 3.6 million doses a day, nationally, the cumulative stock of about 19.6 million will last for 5 and a half days, whereas there’s an additional 24.5 million in the making, that would be sufficient only for another week. But the increase in the speed of vaccination will exhaust both the existing stocks and what’s coming.
The process of restocking is underway and will be dispatched in a period of 4 to 8 days, said the health ministry officials, adding that this assessment is base on daily discussions with all states on their usage and stock positions
Andhra Pradesh has just 1.4 lakh vaccine doses remaining or for a little over a day, following that it has averaged over 1.1 lakh doses a day since April 1. Further, things will depend on how soon the 14.6 lakh doses that are in making will reach the state. Bihar is in a similar situation with 2.6 lakh doses remaining against a daily average vaccination of 1.7 lakh.
Looking at the scenario of larger states, Tamil Nadu has stocks for nearly 17 lakh doses and that’s because its average vaccination level in the last week has been very low at about 37,000. Most of the other states with weeks of stocks are the smaller ones and union territories. Maharashtra has averaged the highest number of daily doses over the week at 3.9 lakh, which means its remaining stock of 15 lakh doses will not last for four days.
Uttar Pradesh (2.5 days), Uttarakhand (2.9), Odisha (3.2) and Madhya Pradesh (3.5) are the other states that have vaccines for less than four days’ stocks in hand. Of these, doses in the pipeline would leave Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh comfortably placed if they reach them in time.
These data show why some states are complaining that they are facing a situation of a vaccine shortage. This analysis takes into account the average daily vaccination over the last week.
States, particularly, those that are witnessing a high surge in Covid cases, would ideally double the highest daily levels of vaccination they have achieved.
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This would change the calculation significantly, for example, Maharashtra did 5.1 lakh doses on April 2. At that rate, it has less than three days’ supplies remaining – but the supply reserved for it has been raised from just over 7.4 lakh on Wednesday to just over 19.4 lakh on Thursday, which if it reaches in good time it will give the state greater comfort.
The health ministry officials said that so far Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan have received the largest number of covid vaccine doses.
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