Donald Trump’s return to the presidency in 2025 has reignited discussions about how his governance might shape US-India relations. With his second tenure expected to last four years (2025-2029), the global community is closely watching his policy directions. For India, a key partner of the United States, the implications could be significant across various sectors. This article provides an explainer to help the common man understand the potential impact of Trump’s presidency on India, considering his past actions and current agenda.
1. Trump’s second term, an overview
Donald Trump’s re-election as the President of the United States in November 2024 marks a continuation of his Ämerica First” policies. During his first term (2017-2-21), Trump reshaped US domestic and foreign policies, often with significant ripple effects on other nations, including India. His second tenure, set to conclude in January 2029, is expected to be built on similar themes, with a strong focus on trade, immigration, and national security.
2. Reflections on Trump’s first term
The gauge how Trump’s policies might impact India this time, it's essential to revisit the key developments from his previous tenure:
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H-1 B Visa restrictions: Trump’s administration implemented tighter regulations for H-1B visas, a move that directly affected Indian IT professionals. According to the US Department of Labour, visa denial rates reached 24% in 2019, impacting India’s IT sector significantly.
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Trade Tensions: Trump’s decision to withdraw India’s Generalization System of Preferences (GSP) benefits in 2019 led to a decline in Indian exports worth $6.3 billion, as reported by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India.
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Defense cooperation: on the positive side, Trump’s administration strengthened Indo-US defense ties, approving major deals such as the purchase of Apache and Chinook helicopters, enhancing India’s military capabilities.
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Geopolitical Alignment: Trump’s tough stance on China's aggression in the Indo-Pacific region aligned with India’s strategic priorities, fostering collaboration in forums like the Quad.
3. Trump’s agenda for his second term
Trump’s second-term agenda appears to focus on familiar priorities, as highlighted in his campaign speeches and policy outlines.
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Immigration policies: Trump has indicated plans to further restrict immigration, favoring skilled workers and promoting domestic employment. As per the Brookings Institution’s analysis, this could mean stricter visa norms, potentially affecting Indian IT Professionals and students.
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Economic protectionism: Trump’s Ämerica First” agenda emphasizes reducing trade deficits and bringing jobs back to the US. This might lead to renewed trade disputes with India, particularly over traffic and market access.
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China containment strategy: Trump’s second term is expected to intensify US efforts to counter China’s influence. India could benefit from this alignment, as it shares similar concerns about China’s influence. India could benefit from this alignment as it shares similar concerns about China’s regional ambitions.
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Energy cooperation: Trump’s focus on energy exports, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil, could boost the US-India energy trade, as seen during his first term.
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Canada as the “51st State” proposal: Trump’s controversial idea of closer integration with Canada, which he has suggested could involve offering it the status of a ‘51st state,” has raised eyebrows globally. While this idea is unlikely to materialize, it reflects Trump’s unconventional approach to geopolitics. Should such policies take shape, they shape, they could redirect US foreign policy priorities, potentially affecting India’s strategic importance.
4. Likely impacts on India
Positive impacts:
- Enhanced strategic cooperation: Trump’s firm stance on China could strengthen India-US collaboration in the Indo-Pacific region.
- Increased defense ties: India might see more defense deals and technology transfers under Trump’s administration, bolstering its military readiness.
- Energy trade opportunities: expanding energy trade could help India diversify its energy imports, reducing dependence on the Middle East.
Negative Impacts:
- Immigration hurdles: Stricter visa policies may challenges for Indian professionals and students aspiring to work or study in the US.
- Trade disputes: Protectionist measures could impact Indian esports, particularly in sectors like textiles and pharmaceuticals.
- Uncertainty in Multilateral forums: Trump’s unpredictable approach to global agreements may hinder collaborative efforts involving India. Such as climate change initiatives.
Experts opinions and reports
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On immigration: as per NASSCOM, tighter H-1B norms under Trump’s previous tenure cost the Indian IT sector over $4 billion annually. Similar policies could have comparable consequences.
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On Trade: according to a report by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, trade growth by 0.5%. India’s exports could again face headwinds under his protectionist policies.
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On Geopolitics: Analysts from the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) highlight that Trump’s tough stance on China offers India a strategic advantage, especially in the Indo-Pacific context.
Altogether Trump’s return to the White House brings both opportunity and challenges for India. While his policies on China and defense cooperation could bolster strategic ties, sticker imagination rules and trade disputes may pose hurdles. The lessons from Trump’s first term provide valuable insights for policymakers, businesses, and individuals alike. As global dynamics evolve, India’s ability to adapt and collaborate will determine the overall impact of Trump’s second presidency.